The Numbers Show the Catholic Vote Still Matters

The Catholic Thing

By George J. Marlin.
But first a note from Robert Royal: Everyone knows that Catholics supported the president-elect in surprising numbers. But today, George Marlin, drawing on information from one of the Trump pollsters, makes clear just how surprising a turn it is, especially among Hispanics. Most analysts have expected that Hispanics would remain faithful to the Democrats, but it seems they are more faithful to basic realities like work, family, faith, and much more. It remains to be seen whether that support will translate into actual changes in the country. But it's encouraging. And it's on hopes like these that this site stays at its tasks. We're getting late into this fundraising campaign and still have a way to go. So, the time to make your contribution to this work is now. The world won't wait. And neither can we. It's easy - and did I say tax-deductible? Just click the button.
Now for today's column...
My book, The American Catholic Voter: 200 Years of Political Impact, was published twenty years ago. That work tells the story of European Catholics who arrived on America's shores in the 1800s and early 1900s with only the clothes on their backs, worked through their parishes and neighborhoods to overcome nativist bigotry, and became a significant voice in local, state, and national politics.
For most of the 20th century, those white ethnics were an important voting bloc in the Democratic Party. But in the post-Vatican II culture wars, they flocked into the arms of Republicans Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.
In the 21st century, the white population in general, and white Catholics in particular, have been a declining electoral force. In 1970, 88 percent of the voting population was white; today it is 67 percent. Most of the Catholic "Nixon Democrats" have died and many of their children and grandchildren are "Cafeteria" Catholics who no longer respect the moral teachings of the Church.
But the Hispanic population (60 percent Catholic) has been growing by leaps and bounds. In 1970, there were 8.9 million Hispanics living in the United States; in 2022, that number hit 63.7 million - 19 percent of all Americans.
As for eligible Hispanic voters, in 1988 they totaled 7.7 million. Now it's 36.2 million. That number is expected to grow annually because 29 percent of Hispanics are currently under eighteen. Hispanic voters are changing the nation's political landscape. And that development was evident in this year's presidential election.
To win, Trump needed more than the aging white Catholic vote in the seven swing states. His campaign, therefore, targeted working-class minorities, particularly Hispanics, to get him over the finish line. The campaign's outreach paid off. Catholics provided the margins of victory in the closely contested swing states.
For the complete statistics, you can see them on the text version of today's column.
As for the overall 2024 national generic Catholic vote, 58 percent supported Trump, 40 percent Harris. Even more striking, 66 percent of Catholics who attend Mass at least once a week, cast their ballot for Trump. Those who go to church only a few times a year voted 56 percent Trump.
The votes of white Catholics broke 61 percent Trump, 35 percent Harris. Hispanic Catholics supported Trump, 53 percent to 46 percent over Harris. In 2024, Trump garnered 45 percent of the total Hispanic vote versus 32 percent in 2020, and 29 percent in 2016. In 2020, Biden carried Hispanics by 41 points while Harris won by only 4 points - a whopping 54 percent swing.
The age distribution of the Hispanic vote is interesting. Forty-eight percent of Hispanics under the age of 44 cast their vote for Trump. Those over 65 voted 58 percent Trump, 41 percent Harris. Hispanic men voted 55 percent Trump, 43 percent Harris. Only Hispanic women went for Harris (60 percent, only 38 percent for Trump).
One extraordinary result: Starr County, Texas, the most Hispanic county in the nation (97 percent Mexican-American) had voted...