Colorado’s political future under Proposition 131

By Jon Caldara

Out of the 14 statewide ballot questions, which by the way ties the record, it’s Proposition 131 that would bring the most political change and disruption with its jungle primaries and ranked-choice voting general elections.

Assuming voter fatigue doesn’t keep voters from reaching this down-ballot issue, it’s the last of the statewide questions, it should pass. This is a prediction not an endorsement.

It will pass because of its more than $15 million in funding, and because there is no effective or funded campaign against it, and generally voters are frustrated with both major parties.

The only area of agreement between the Colorado GOP and the Colorado Democratic Party is that they hate this proposal. That also bodes very well for 131’s passage.

Prop 131 does not create a pure ranked-choice voting system. Instead, it makes a hybrid system where the top four candidates from an open primary move to the general election which is decided by ranked-choice voting.

Democrats hate the proposal because it could challenge their one-party dominance of all three branches of Colorado’s government. Republicans fear that should two Republicans make it to the general election they will cancel each other out, allowing the Democrat to win.

This is arguably what happened in Alaska, as the Republican-heavy state elected a Democrat to represent it in the U.S. Congress. On Nov. 5, voters in Alaska may rescind the very system Colorado is likely to pass.

So, what will Colorado look like under a system where anyone can petition on to a shared primary ballot? Honestly, no one knows. But the thought of it is causing conniptions among Ds and Rs.

Though nowhere near guaranteed, there is a hopeful outcome after 131 passes. It could bring some lucidity back to our state’s progressive government. It all depends on how this system is implemented and utilized.

First, it requires we accept some realities about Colorado many social conservatives refuse to accept. And I’ll keep repeating these realities, even though it’s like trying to convince your drunk uncle he’s an alcoholic. Some Republicans will violently never accept it, to the point of indignantly accusing you of being the alcoholic.

For the next decade or so, Colorado is not going to become an anti-abortion state. It is not going to become an anti-cannabis state. It’s not going to become an anti-gay state. And it will continue to be a very environmentally activist state.

In other words, the Dave Williams type of gay flag-burning, Trump-worshiping, pro-life conservative will continue to turn off swing voters. And despite what that crowd believes, you can’t win by turning off swing voters. Winning elections is about addition, not subtraction.

And should Trump retake the presidency, swing Colorado voters, particularly independent suburban women, will be loath to vote for any Republicans until he is out of office.

But being anti-Trump and pro-choice doesn’t make an unaffiliated voter pro-tax, pro-crime, pro-regulation or woke. And this is where Prop 131 might, might bring some sanity back to Colorado.

Nearly 50% of all Colorado voters are now unaffiliated. And that number is only growing (yet another reason Prop 131 will very likely win). To these independents, the current Democratic party’s version of socialism is distasteful, and the social conservativism of the Republican party is unwelcoming.

So, half of the state’s voters are now politically displaced. Or, to put it in terms NPR listeners can comprehend, half of Colorado is currently experiencing political homelessness.

After 131 becomes law, rural legislative districts should continue to elect Republicans. Urban districts should continue to elect Democrats. It is the swing suburban districts that could see something very different — unaffiliated candidates running and winning.

The system to elect the mayor of Colorado Springs is comparable to what Prop 131 brings with its open jungle primary. For better or worse, as the Springs lost its well-known conservatism, it elected an unaffiliated mayor, Yemi Mololade. It is a sign of what is to come.

Colorado is poised to become the first state where unaffiliated candidates could swing the balance in the legislature. They could work with rural Republicans to lower taxes and regulations and increase penalties for crime, while joining urban Democrats to defend social issues.

At least that’s my hope. Either way, unaffiliated candidates will run and will win.