NATO’s Eastward Expansion and the Ukraine Conflict — The Omens from Silent Voices and Moral Hazard

R3 Files Podcast ― The Success of Failure

Part 2:

Managing the already damaged relations between Russia and the West have escalated to new heights due to Russia’s “Special Military Operation” of February 24 2022. The ongoing Ukraine conflict is invariably portrayed by Western powers and the political media establishment, as one of Russia being the sole aggressor. Deteriorating ties are also blamed on the authoritarian policies pursued by President Vladimir Putin. However, the West has played a significant role in eroding this relationship, ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 by ignoring Russian policy concerns and attempting to take advantage of Russian weakness during that critical period. Recent action by western powers, aimed at targeting Russia through economic sanctions, have not only created major problems for itself, such as a looming energy crisis but have made any diplomatic solution, to the ongoing military tragedy in Ukraine increasingly unlikely.

This two part episode lifts the lid on the origins of the current Ukraine conflict by first visiting the source of the problem, the end of the Cold War; But also provides a detailed context behind the escalation of hostilities between Russia and the US. This critical juncture during 1989-1990 marked, not only the transformation of a new international system, but also the genesis of the Ukraine war. An important aspect of US policy towards Russia, in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, was its tacit aim to contain the newly formed Russian Federation and ensure it could not successfully re-impose its influence across Eastern Europe. This was primarily carried out through the eastern expansion policy of both NATO and the EU, with its desired aim of edging closer towards legitimate spheres of Russian influence. Initially, Moscow tolerated this process by focusing its efforts on gaining political acceptance by the West and integrating into its economic institutions but this policy eventually faced rebuttal, due to the emergence of Vladimir Putin at the turn of the century.

Ultimately the US—Russia relationship is defined by a fundamental dilemma of security interests. To expand on this point, I introduce the viewpoints of two eminent scholars on Russia studies and international relations, who both argue that most of the blame for the Ukraine conflict, lies with the US and its European allies, citing Washington’s policy of unilateralism, after the end of the Cold War and also its wholesale disregard of Russian national interests. I explain how the eastern expansion of NATO began, and the political rationale used to justify it, using Professor John Mearsheimer’s theory of “offensive realism.” Also how, the Ukraine crisis was eventually kindled, using Mearsheimer’s argument of the “West’s triple approach” namely, NATO enlargement, EU expansion and Democracy promotion. In the final section, I provide an assessment of the internal vulnerabilities and geo-political perspectives which shape the dynamics of great powers, thus helping to explain the current Ukraine conflict.