‘A major blow to the Kremlin’. Why the killing of Russian chemical weapons chief Igor Kirillov is more than just a military setback

Meduza.io

Investigators work at the site where Igor Kirillov and his assistant Ilya Polikarpov were killed in Moscow. December 17, 2024.

Early on the morning of December 17, an explosion in central Moscow killed Russian general Igor Kirillov. As the head of Russia’s radioactive, chemical, and biological defense forces, Kirillov wasn’t just any military officer; in addition to allegedly ordering attacks using banned weapons, he was also a prolific source of disinformation about Ukraine and the West. The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), which had charged Kirillov in absentia just a day earlier, quickly claimed responsibility for the assassination. For insight into the significance of Kirillov’s death and the goals of Ukraine’s unconventional operations more broadly, Meduza spoke to Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Olga Lautman

Igor Kirillov’s death is a “major blow to the Kremlin and will have some impact on military capabilities,” Russia analyst Olga Lautman told Meduza, noting that the general was killed only four miles from the Kremlin. “It strikes directly at Russia’s leadership, exposing its vulnerability. Beyond the loss of a key official, it sows fear among senior military leaders and officials, revealing the Kremlin’s failure to protect its own.”

Lautman highlighted that the assassination came just weeks after Russia’s “humiliation and damaging loss in Syria”:

Ukraine has once again demonstrated the ability to strike deep inside Russian territory — and last year even reportedly managed to set the Russian flag on fire atop the Kremlin. This underscores the growing vulnerability of Russia’s leadership and highlights the increasing weakness of its internal security.

On Wednesday, the Russian authorities arrested a 29-year-old man from Uzbekistan in connection with Kirillov’s killing. Within hours, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) released a video that appeared to show the suspect confessing to planting a bomb on orders from Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for promises of $100,000 and a European passport.

A rapid arrest

• Russia arrests Uzbekistani citizen over General Igor Kirillov’s assassination, says suspect confessed to working with Ukrainian intelligence

According to Lautman, the speed of this arrest alone casts doubt on its legitimacy. “[The] FSB’s quick resolution of the case — purportedly solved in under 24 hours — raises skepticism, as it’s unlikely they identified the real perpetrators so swiftly. In short, the FSB’s statements should not be taken too seriously, as they focus more on damage control than accuracy,” she said.

She also noted that the FSB’s frequent reports of thwarted terrorist attacks, which occur almost weekly, “seem more focused on bolstering their image than reflecting the truth,” adding: “These reports are an attempt to demonstrate the FSB’s ‘effectiveness,’ especially after high-profile failures like the Kirillov assassination.”

In Lautman’s opinion, the idea that Kirillov’s alleged assassin was offered money and “a European passport” to carry out the attack strains credulity. “Ukrainian intelligence services do not operate in this way and this is more projection by Russia. This is exactly how Russian intelligence services operate,” she said.

Russia has been known to recruit individuals on Telegram not only as cannon fodder in Ukraine but also locals in Europe to carry out espionage, arson attacks, and sabotage operations. These tactics have become more frequent, highlighting Russia’s broader and more emboldened efforts to destabilize Europe through covert means.

Ukrainian intelligence agencies like the SBU, the military’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and the Special Operations Forces have carried out frequent unconventional attacks on Russian territory since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. While Igor Kirillov is the highest-ranking Russian military officer to be killed outside of the combat zone so far, Ukraine has carried out multiple other high-profile assassinations, such as those of propagandist Daria Dugina in 2022 and pro-war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky in 2023. It has also targeted Russian industrial facilities and transportation infrastructure.

“These unconventional attacks serve multiple purposes,” Lautman said. “They act as psychological operations to show Russia is not immune from war on its soil, expose vulnerabilities in its defense and security systems, and disrupt critical infrastructure, including oil fields that fund Russia’s war effort as they continue to evade sanctions. These operations also serve to humiliate the Kremlin by highlighting their inability to prevent such attacks, while further exposing its weaknesses.”

At the same time, these unconventional attacks directly further Kyiv’s aims on the battlefield. “Most importantly, these operations aim to destroy Russian military capabilities used against Ukrainian civilians,” Lautman explained. “Unlike Russia, which strategically targets civilians, Ukraine focuses on military objectives inside Russia, avoiding civilian casualties while destabilizing Russia’s military operations and internal stability.”

Who was Igor Kirillov?

• ‘A war criminal and a legitimate target’ Russian general assassinated in Moscow accused Kyiv and the West of secret biolabs, drone-delivered mosquitoes, and engineered pandemics