Rate cuts to boost some construction segments with a lag

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Construction spend strong on structural tailwinds

Construction spending, excluding housing, is running at a rate of about $1-$1.2 billion annually, near record levels. Much of this spend is driven by recently passed legislative acts, according to Mike Feniger. But reshoring and AI are also having significant positive impact and the annualized capex for big tech has increased from $138 billion to $229 billion in just a year. Still, despite the headline strength, there are areas of construction which are weak, including warehouses, retail shopping centers and private office. The number of mega projects is slowing. Rate cuts and election certainty could be a catalyst for some of these lagging areas. Typically, housing benefits from rate cuts first and commercial construction sees a boost 1-2 years later but a lack of overcapacity in commercial construction could mean that there's less of a lag this time. Mike believes that large equipment rental companies are likely to benefit from this improvement, a view he discusses within.

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