206 - What do the OPEC + cuts mean? | Kunal Patel from Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Energy Week

OPEC+ to Weigh Production Cut to Bolster Oil Prices
https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-to-weigh-production-cut-to-bolster-oil-prices-11664734482
- oil prices are inflated due to inflation so $80/barrel oil is perhaps more like $70/barrerl oil or even $60/barrel oil.
- could this cut put prices back up to $90 or $100/barrel
- How much more can prices go up after the jump in prices as news of these talks jhave gotten out?
- What about the demand forecasts that show increased demand in 2023? Is this just a short term cut for the rest of 2022
- What if prices get too high for China?
This 100% solar community endured Hurricane Ian with no loss of power and minimal damage
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/02/us/solar-babcock-ranch-florida-hurricane-ian-climate/index.html
- This community's survival isn't about its eco-consious solar powered design but that all of its transmission lines are underground, well built homes & an inland location
Energy crisis: Europeans 'must lower thermostats to prepare for Russia turning off gas supplies'
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/10/03/energy-crisis-europeans-must-lower-thermostats-to-prepare-for-russia-turning-off-gas-suppl
- leaks were also found on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was due to come on stream this year but never did after Germany refused to certify it.
Special Guest Kunal Patel from Dallas Fed Energy Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2022/2203.aspx#tab-report
- 200 Oil and Gas Firms in 11th District (Texas, Louisiana, New Mexico)
- 173 responded (mostly E&P firms, also oil services firms)
- Overall goal to better understand opportunities and challenges upstream is facing
- 3rd Quarter Survey shows strong expansion in upstream. Strong pace for business activity but supply chain is worsening and costs remain very high.
- Outlooks improve, but uncertainty jumped!
- Real price of gasoline compared to 2011/2014 - price is still lower
- Age of cheap natgas in US coming to an end? 69% think that it will come to an end by 2025. That is very soon and a very high percentage of respondants. Though 16% said that prices will return back to lower. Shows what kind trend we are in.
- It's hard to predict the price of oil and natural gas
- Naming specific agencies as sources of difficulty and uncertainty.
- Very few comments on OPEC, much more on finding labor, finding equipment especially tubular steel and government regulatory uncertainty/interference.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com