Episode 15: A Hundred Acre Wood full of Eeyores?

After Office Hours with Puget Sound Economic Forecaster

Spring has sprung in our region – from Tulips in the Skagit Valley to a fresh dusting of pollen just about everywhere else. There is always such a rush of optimism when the cold dark days of winter in the Pacific Northwest yield to the random weather days of Spring – will it be sunny, warm, cold, rainy, windy or some other adjective? All we can say is our colleagues in meteorology truly help improve the perception of accuracy for Economists.

You have found yourself another edition of After Office Hours with the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster. It is here that you will find an ongoing conversation about our Puget Sound regional economy. We record this podcast about one month after posting our quarterly forecast and report as a way to expand on the report but also engage you in some of the same discussions we have every day in our office.

The team came together on April 12, 2023. The group on deck for this economic dive is…

Dr. Hart Hodges an economics professor at Western Washington University. Hart writes the regional forecast article and will occasionally contribute other articles based on the topics. Hart and I both co-direct the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western.

Bethany King is our Research Economist and works with the switches and dials of many of our models while providing a wide array of insights into the forecasts. Bethany writes many of the articles each quarter as well as the monthly updates for our digital subscribers.

Cam MacKenzie rounds out the talent portion of the show today. Cam is our Research Designer and contributes to the Forecaster with a variety of articles and the retail section.

James McCafferty, James serves as the general manager and publisher for the report.

One of the most intriguing aspects of this work is considering the shifting landscape ahead and the many, well too many most of the time, aspects that could dramatically impact the forecasting work. Influences from the international, national, regional, public sector, private sector
and the fantasy sector of social media all seem to be moving in different directions all at the same time.

The team goes over the following topics - referencing articles.

Residential Real Estate
There has been a lot of media ink spilled these past few weeks related to real estate. Bethany covers what going on with residential real estate, what is happening nationally and how does it connect locally. Zillow and Moody’s (https://buff.ly/3nYBgNt) have drawn very different opinions on what the national market is doing

Commercial Real Estate

Hart, discusses reports that the commercial real estate sector has signs of sluggishness (https://buff.ly/3o194t0) and provides his take on the local market and what might influence a shift in current conditions.

Consumers

Cam covers the WSJ article posted recently declaring "the must have economy is in decline" as consumers are reining in their spending (https://buff.ly/3mmSKm4). Cam reports on consumer confidence and consumer activity,

GDP

Hart has an opinion on the Atlanta Fed downgraded in their GDPNow forecast again. Now for 3 or 4 weeks in a row with it now reporting 1.5%. (https://buff.ly/3AuIjQb) We are hearing very conflicting talking points on this front… from a recession is eminent to never and that rate cuts are eminent or several years off. This seems like people hanging their hat on one metric in a complex world – Hart states if this is correct or not.

Manufacturing

Bethany discussed investment in manufacturing and talks about what is underneath that investment. (spending related to manufacturing)

Retail

Cam add some details to the retail forecast and current conditions.

Housing and Construction

Bethany, add some details to the housing and construction forecast.

On the Other Hand

Hart adds additional insight to the article he wrote for this last report that focused on the positive aspects of the economy.