406: Housing Crash Predictions with Eric Bassmijian Part 1

Accredited Income Property Investment Specialist (AIPIS)

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2y ago 36:58

MP3•Maison d'episode

Join Jason today as he welcomes Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research to the show as they do a deep dive into the housing market. Jason also suggests that as investors we should REFRAME our mind in terms of the housing industry especially as we continue to see very low inventory.

Eric is an economic cycle analyst providing research on long-term and short-term trends in growth and inflation. With a degree in economics and experience at a quantitative hedge fund, Eric has developed a unique secular and cyclical framework to forecast major economic inflection points and the resulting impact on asset prices.

Watch the videoon YouTube HERE.

Key Takeaways:

Jason's editorial

0:47 The Right Frame

3:44 Reframing the housing market debate

5:32 It's all about investing for YEILD

7:38 5 Cities where at least half of millennials can't afford to rent a 1-bedroom

9:54 Rent- the second frame

10:26 Jason's 2 value drivers- scarcity and utility

Eric Basmajian interview

15:07 The new Paul Volcker?

16:25 Reframing the housing debate

18:26 The important thing is yield- not prices

19:13 Evaluating the volume cycle versus the price cycle

21:24 Inventory woes- there's nothing to sell! Disparities in the regional market

23:14 Real estate market as an indicator of the broader economy

26:00 Interest Rate Composite (Inverted)

28:03 MBA Purchase Index

30:12 US New Single Family Houses Sold

31:29 Months Supply: New Single Family Homes

32:25 NAHB/Wells Fargo US Housing Market Index

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