436: Peter Zeihan The End of the World is Just the Beginning Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

American Monetary Association

Peter Zeihan, author and geopolitical strategist, is back on the show with Jason Hartman to discuss inflation, the breakdown of supply chains and global manufacturing, the labor shortage, generational demographics, the Russia Ukraine conflict, and so much more!

“In his timely new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, author and geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan maps out the next world: a world where countries or regions will have no choice but to make their own goods, grow their own food, secure their own energy, fight their own battles, and do it all with populations that are both shrinking and aging.

The list of countries that make it all work is smaller than you think. Which means everything about our interconnected world - from how we manufacture products, to how we grow food, to how we keep the lights on, to how we shuttle stuff about, to how we pay for it all - is about to change. A world ending. A world beginning. Zeihan brings readers along for an illuminating (and a bit terrifying) ride packed with foresight, wit, and his trademark irreverence.”

At the moment, the labor disconnect is the single largest issue behind our inflation numbers and the worker shortage will increase every year until 2030. The advanced worker cadre of baby boomers is moving into retirement and the need for government spending to keep these people alive will skyrocket.

The very core of globalization is that anyone can go anywhere to get anything. This will change as China is no longer a reliable manufacturing partner and many companies are on their way out. Also, when we talk about the breakdown of supply chains, we're entering into a world where raw commodity access is no longer guaranteed, so we can look forward to large portions of the world losing access to the inputs that are necessary to attempt a modern lifestyle. Take silicon for semiconductors for example; 95% of it comes from one mine in North Carolina. So it's one thing to control global food or global energy - it's another thing when you can control the only input that allows digitization to even theoretically happen.

The sourcing of raw materials is critical. Now that the world's top wheat exporter has invaded the world's number four wheat exporter, what short and long term consequences can we expect? Not to mention that Russia is also the world's largest exporter of fertilizer and the components necessary so people can make it. We're in the early stages of a multi year shortage in all things agricultural.

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Welcome Peter Zeihan, he just released his new book The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

1:54 Globalization is unique to this period in history

3:19 Mass explosion of economic activity around the world

4:43 Aging demographics around the world

6:00 China crammed 200 years of economic advancement into 40 years

10:03 Historically, capital and demographics have not been intertwined

12:22 The link between inflation capital availability and demographics - Boomers are retiring in large numbers

13:25 We have a 400,000 workers shortage and that will increase every year until 2030

15:14 The labor disconnect is the single largest issue behind our inflation numbers

18:00 Labor market over the next 20 years

19:22 Can China take over the world?

22:43 China’s severe lockdown measures

24:45 China in Africa

27:01 Will automation destroy jobs?

29:49 The future of manufacturing

31:53 Was the Bretton Woods Agreement a good system?

34:47 Peter Zeihan on industrial commodities

37:46 What’s next for the economy?

40:42 Building material shortage

42:49 Learn more at Zeihan.com. Follow Peter on Twitter @PeterZeihan and check out his new book - The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

PETER ZEIHAN is an expert in geopolitics: the study of how place impacts financial, economic, cultural, political and military developments. He presents customized executive briefings to a wide array of audiences which include, but are not limited to, financial professionals, Fortune 500 firms, energy investors, and a mix of industrial, power, agricultural and consulting associations and corporations. Mr. Zeihan has been featured in, and cited by, numerous newspapers and broadcasts including The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, AP, Bloomberg, CNN, ABC, The New York Times, Fox News and MarketWatch.

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