031 — Timeout [PAB]

Full Stack Banana

Cette semaine on évoque la fusillade de l'école Covenant de Nashville, l'acte d'accusation de Trump. Nous couvrons également le grand débat sur l'IA, et on en profite pour faire un bref retour sur la vie de Gordon Moore, en plus de parler de “courtcore” avec l'escapade en ski de Gwyneth; Aussi: crises en Israel et en France et, les assouplissements des lois sur le travail des enfants sont-elles justifiables? Aussi: l'ascension étrange d'Andrew Tate et la décision de mettre le Narcan en vente libre rappelle l’ampleur de la crise des opioïdes.

Notes et références

[02:00] Tragédie et courage à Nashville — Rex Engelbert et Michael Collazo : Qui sont les officiers de Nashville qui ont abattu le tireur de l'école Covenant ?

Katherine Koonce, la directrice de l'école, a également couru vers le tireur selon des témoins. Elle est morte en essayant de sauver ses élèves.

Aussi: CBS News reportedly barring staff from using term 'transgender' to reference Nashville shooter.

[07:00] Trump inculpé — “America’s Banana Republic Era Is Here: Manhattan Grand Jury Votes To Indict Trump”

[10:00] 6 janvier 2021 (et non 2020, correction faite) — Select January 6th Committee Final Report and Supporting Materials Collection et les images publiées récemment par Tucker Carlson et Fox.

[18:00] “Courtcore” — Gwyneth aurait pu aisément régler ça pour une chandelle.

“Gwyneth Paltrow, wellness guru, entrepreneur and actress, has given the world many things: conscious uncoupling, rectal ozone therapy and, now, a week and a half into that limited series officially known as Sanderson v. Paltrow and unofficially as the Gwyneth Paltrow Ski Crash Trial that is taking place in Park City, Utah, and streaming on the Law & Crime network, a new style subgenre that ought henceforth to be known as courtcore” (NYT)

L’affaire est désormais réglée mais, une demie-journée de ski a quand-même été perdue

[23:00] Pause AI

* La lettre ouverte du FLI

* Au nom du progrès, AI development should continue

The reality is that no one at the beginning of the printing press had any real idea of the changes it would bring. No one at the beginning of the fossil fuel era had much of an idea of the changes it would bring. No one is good at predicting the longer-term or even medium-term outcomes of these radical technological changes (we can do the short term, albeit imperfectly). No one. Not you, not Eliezer, not Sam Altman, and not your next door neighbor.

How well did people predict the final impacts of the printing press? How well did people predict the final impacts of fire? We even have an expression “playing with fire.” Yet it is, on net, a good thing we proceeded with the deployment of fire (“Fire? You can’t do that! Everything will burn! You can kill people with fire! All of them! What if someone yells “fire” in a crowded theater!?”).

* Au nom du risque, AI development should stop — Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down (Eliezer Yudkowsky).

The key issue is not “human-competitive” intelligence (as the open letter puts it); it’s what happens after AI gets to smarter-than-human intelligence. Key thresholds there may not be obvious, we definitely can’t calculate in advance what happens when, and it currently seems imaginable that a research lab would cross critical lines without noticing.

Many researchers steeped in these issues, including myself, expect that the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI, under anything remotely like the current circumstances, is that literally everyone on Earth will die.

* Voir aussi Scott Alexander ou les résumés de Zvi.

* LessWrong

[28:00] Bostrom et Thomas Midgley

[32:00] Ben Evans — Trois façons de penser à ChatGPT

[34:00] Gordon Moore

[42:00] Bremmer — Israel’s political crisis, explained

[45:00] Mouvements sociaux en France

[49:00] “The Dangerous Race to Put More Children to Work” ; In the past two years, at least 10 states have introduced or passed laws rolling back child labor protections.

A bill signed by Gov. Chris Sununu lowers the age limit for students to bus tables where alcohol is served from 15 to 14 years old. It also increases the hours most 16- and 17-year-olds can work when they’re in school (source)

[57:00] The Dangerous Rise of Andrew Tate

[1:08:00] I used AI to bet on horse-racing. Here’s what happened

[1:12:00] F.D.A. Approves Narcan for Over-the-Counter Sales

[1:18:00] Tesla cars lose value faster than rival models after price cuts, data shows

The value of a new Model 3 with a long-range battery bought in January this year in the UK for £57,435 is forecast to fall 46 per cent to £31,300 by January 2024, according to industry pricing agency CAP HPI.

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