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1 Pushing Past Stagnation & Business Plateaus 30:21
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AiméHitting plateaus is a common milestone in business, but there’s a difference between stability and a rut. In the last installment of this season, we’ll dive into the ways small business owners push beyond plateaus and find new ways to achieve revenue growth. Jannese and Austin wrap up their time in Nashville, Tennessee with a wonderful visit to N.B. Goods to speak with owner Camille Alston . Camille details the times where she hit a wall with profits, the strategies she implemented to increase revenue, what worked, what didn’t, and the important lessons she learned in the process. You won’t want to miss this informative final chapter! Learn more about how QuickBooks can help you grow your business: QuickBooks.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…
The Razor’s Edge
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Contenu fourni par Shortman Studios. Tout le contenu du podcast, y compris les épisodes, les graphiques et les descriptions de podcast, est téléchargé et fourni directement par Shortman Studios ou son partenaire de plateforme de podcast. Si vous pensez que quelqu'un utilise votre œuvre protégée sans votre autorisation, vous pouvez suivre le processus décrit ici https://fr.player.fm/legal.
The Razor’s Edge is an investing podcast that combines a prop trader’s viewpoint and deep-dive fundamental research to provide a unique take on the markets. The show is co-hosted by Akram’s Razor, a trader, tech enthusiast, meat lover, Marvel fanboy, battle tested activist short-seller and humble market servant, and by Daniel Shvartsman, VP of Content at Investing.com and someone who has seen thousands of investing pitches and ideas and how they play out over the past decade. The duo start with a theme or idea from Akram’s investing, then break it down to understand what goes into the idea, what could go wrong, and what else investors and traders need to know. They also interview industry leaders, executives, and other investors to get a wider perspective. The show has thousands of listeners around the world.
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108 episodes
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Contenu fourni par Shortman Studios. Tout le contenu du podcast, y compris les épisodes, les graphiques et les descriptions de podcast, est téléchargé et fourni directement par Shortman Studios ou son partenaire de plateforme de podcast. Si vous pensez que quelqu'un utilise votre œuvre protégée sans votre autorisation, vous pouvez suivre le processus décrit ici https://fr.player.fm/legal.
The Razor’s Edge is an investing podcast that combines a prop trader’s viewpoint and deep-dive fundamental research to provide a unique take on the markets. The show is co-hosted by Akram’s Razor, a trader, tech enthusiast, meat lover, Marvel fanboy, battle tested activist short-seller and humble market servant, and by Daniel Shvartsman, VP of Content at Investing.com and someone who has seen thousands of investing pitches and ideas and how they play out over the past decade. The duo start with a theme or idea from Akram’s investing, then break it down to understand what goes into the idea, what could go wrong, and what else investors and traders need to know. They also interview industry leaders, executives, and other investors to get a wider perspective. The show has thousands of listeners around the world.
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108 episodes
Tous les épisodes
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1 China Stocks and Boeing, And Whether To Venture Into Troubled Waters 1:17:30
1:17:30 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:17:30
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméOur second podcast of this week and 2024 covers companies not priced for perfection, but that instead have struggled. We start with China stocks, and the question of whether China is uninvestible. We go into Akram's July 2023 Alibaba trade views and how that was also an investment thesis. We also talk about the connected nature of global economics now and in history. From there we jump to Boeing's travails and how much of those travails should be pinned on Boeing, and how much of them are part of doing business, and capitalism generally. Related posts: The Razor's Edge: China is Uninvestable?? The Razor's Edge: Boeing and Regulatory Capture in Capitalism The Long and Short of the Markets: Boeing's Bad Week, and Going Beyond the Headlines 2:05 minute mark – the stakes with the China trade 6:20 – Restarting with Baba’s position and Akram’s July 2023 thesis on Alibaba 13:00 – The Baba buy case 19:00 – China’s import beyond China-based companies, crypto and politics asides 24:00 – China’s lagging performance and frontier market experience 34:30 – The concept of too hard 37:30 – Getting into Boeing’s issues and past regulatory stories 48:00 – Boeing’s track record in context of other industries, and shared responsibilities 59:00 – Boeing too big to fail? 1:07:00 – The capitalism angle…
1 Semiconductors: The Hottest Commodity On Earth (Or At Least Trading Like It) 1:08:48
1:08:48 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:08:48
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméThe chip sector has been Hansel-level hot to start 2024. AMD and Nvidia have jumped 14% and 21% respectively in 2024, the SOXX ETF is up 8% in the last week, and the AI theme of 2023 is still driving things to start 2024. What does this say about the sector, and why is it like being a favorite to win the Super Bowl? We discuss the excitement, the build out of AI, the usage, and how that all converges into questions for chip stocks. This is the first of two episodes this week, with the second on a couple different topics, watch for that Thursday or Friday. Referenced article: https://the-razors-edge.ghost.io/razors-edge-nvidia-pide-piper-baidu-bumblings/ Referenced presentation/tweet: https://twitter.com/akramsrazor/status/1745029272140456325 Topics Covered 6:00 minute mark – Chip party 10:30- AMD’s spark 16:00 – The internet bubble comparison 21:00 – Feeling Peakish 24:30 – Hyperscalers data center build out and what could go wrong for Nvidia 34:00 – Apple’s Siri as an example of how AI will benefit us, vs. a new hardware assistant 45:30 – Are there any winners in a great AI software convergence 52:30 - Why it matters for chip stocks…
1 2023’s Big Finish: Where do we Stand? Is this another 2021? What makes sense? 1:00:02
1:00:02 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:00:02
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméHey! We're back! It's been a while, but with 2023 finishing in such a one-direction flourish, we wanted to pick up the mic again. Akram and Daniel talk about what to make of the market's triumphal 2023. We cover the overall vibes in the market, but also get into the weeds on stocks like Nvidia, Micron, Docusign, Zoom, and even Alteryx and Roku, as well as a few older names. The plan is to publish more in the year ahead. Hold us to it, and enjoy this episode. Topics Covered 2:15 minute mark – A triumphal year for the market – justified? 9:00 – Financials as an example of shifting momentum and sentiment, as well as thematic trading and the speed of change 13:30 – End uses of AI – where are we at this point 20:00 - Nvidia as the locus of various tech hype cycles 28:00 – What does semiconductor cyclicality look like now? 34:15 – Are we in normal yet? For software or otherwise 51:00 – Speed of moves in the last quarter of 2023…
1 The AI Rally: Sorting out Heft from Hype 1:07:54
1:07:54 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:07:54
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméIt's been a while since we've posted a Razor's Edge episode, and a lot has happened! A whole banking crisis came and went and apparently is all resolved (?). More relevant to the sort of things we talk about, the Nasdaq has returned to full bull market mode, powered by the excitement around generative AI, as best embodied by Nvidia's smashing earnings report of late May 2023. There's a lot to be legitimately excited about with this trend, and at the same time, like every exciting new thing, there's a lot to be suspicious of. Is generative AI going to generate us right out of what was still a re-centering, declining tech market? Can generative AI be good for every publicly traded tech company except CHGG? When does chat GPT replace us as hosts? That's what we cover on this week's episode, more or less. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark - The macro backdrop for this bifurcated rally 7:30 – What we learned from NVDA’s report 15:30 – How this AI compute trend plays out across the semiconductor sector 24:00 – AI uses and AI losers or trade-offs 34:00 – Bear market rally, death of permabears, and the many crosswinds 46:00 – How the cost-cutting rally collides with the AI investment rally 53:30 – How does anyone get an edge using AI…
1 The 2023 Market’s Squeezy, Trashy, Inevitable Start to the Year 1:07:29
1:07:29 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:07:29
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméIt’s been a funky start to the year, as a dash for trash rally has extended into a not as bad as expected earnings rally, and now it’s easy to be wrongfooted. We dive into this market, including how markets don't go straight to zero, no matter what December felt like; how recessions take a long time to play out; what we can learn from moves in Twilio and Meta; and why the rise of AI has complicated narratives.…
1 Docusign, Zoom, MongoDB, and the SaaS Circle of Life 46:39
46:39 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé46:39
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméOn this week's The Razor's Edge, we talk about software as a service and how the market seems to repeat the same patterns over and over. Those patterns include: Taking the last three months and the next three months and extrapolating far into the future Ignoring valuation until it's too late to ignore valuation Searching for silver bullet explanations and one-size-fits-all theories This time around that means that some of the first Covid winners and first Covid hangover victims are starting to look like interesting post-hangover recoveries; that usage based business models are just business models with their pluses and minuses; and that profitability matters, whether its actual profitability or easy to see how a company cuts to get there.…
1 Compound248 on Twitter’s New Era and the SBF/FTX Meltdown 1:42:47
1:42:47 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:42:47
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméAll-star guest Compound248 joins us to follow up on a wild week in the markets. We talk Elon Musk’s high volume start as owner of Twitter and the SBF, FTX, crypto crisis. Akram's Razor and Compound go back and forth on the import for the cryptosphere, why Elon and team could have taken easier shots on goal, and break down what breaking the buck means, among other topics. It's a story of the Hindenburg and the Titanic, and we see how things got to where they are and what might change. 5:00 minute mark – Twitter – the Twitter turmoil in the Musk era, and what Twitter could/should be doing now, the power of direct messages, Elon’s core thesis and the voices in his ear, the timing; Twitter’s data business and a SaaS digression 44:00 minute mark – FTX – the building blocks that lead to FTX’s and SBF’s rise; where things went wrong; the importance of staying silent as a levered brokerage business; the Lehman and other parallels; SBF’s use of Twitter; Binance’s checkmate move and whether it was proximate or definitive; breaking the buck; the final takeaways for crypto and for bitcoin – bull or bear?…
1 Meta’s Crash And Tricky Position, and the Slowing of AWS and Public Cloud Growth 1:39:32
1:39:32 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:39:32
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméLast week was a big week in tech, so we’re back with an episode on two of the biggest stories. First, (2:40 minute mark) we break down Meta Platforms’ bummer of an earnings result and why it shouldn’t have been so surprising. What choice does Zuck have and where is the business heading? We then (57:00) get into Amazon and AWS’s disappointing quarter, and the future of public cloud. That opens up some space for talking about the generals no longer leading and what a downturn in VC funding means for big tech. We wrap up with a few minutes on Twitter (1:30:00) now that the Elon Musk deal is done and dusted. Check out Akram’s post on these matters.…
1 The Latest SaaS Turns: Okta, MDB, Veeva, and Twilio and the Challenges for SaaS 2.0 1:10:07
1:10:07 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:10:07
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméQ2 earnings season has delivered many surprises on the one hand and continuations of trends on the other hand. For SaaS companies, that has meant continued drifting. Last week, Okta, MDB, and Veeva reported, and we break down each of those companies on this week's the Razor's Edge (you can also read Akram's take here ). We get into the challenges each of those companies face, but also the broader difference between "legacy" SaaS companies like Salesforce and the newer all cloud products like Okta. Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark - Okta’s earnings – what went wrong and what differentiates the Oktas from the Salesforces 10:00 – The value of “the suits” and the challenge of building a microservice-based business model 23:00 – The presumption that software is a great model 28:00 – MDB’s earnings 40:00 – Cutting to profitability amidst the tech recession 52:00 – The consolidation calvary is not about to arrive, and what else to watch 58:00 – Notes on Veeva 1:04:00 – Docusign preview…
1 Roku’s Wipeout and whether the Black Box will Open 1:13:02
1:13:02 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:13:02
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméRoku's dud of a quarter echoed both Snap's report from the week earlier and the start of the pandemic as the sudden advertising slowdown hit them as well. The issues with Roku go beyond the quarter, starting primarily with how much harder it is to understand the details of their business. Will this quarter force a change? And what else does the advertising slowdown mean for the market? We discuss on this week's The Razor's Edge. Topics Covered 3:30 minute mark – Breaking down Roku’s wipeout 11:30 – How important is the advertising wipeout in general 19:30 – Whisper numbers and the Roku black box 31:30 – Will this force Roku to be more transparent? The Twilio example 39:30 – What makes Roku more interesting? 55:00 – The death of never sell…
1 Twitter Trial Breakdown 1:44:54
1:44:54 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:44:54
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméIt’s all happening: Elon Musk filed to terminate his deal to buy Twitter, Twitter sued him for specific performance, and now the trials begin. Today, not a trial actually but a hearing to see whether the trial should take place on Twitter’s requested timeline, in September, or Musk’s requested timeline, in February. Still, the two sides are starting to show their hands. While much of this ‘negotiating’ has been done in public, the filings were still revelatory. So, as we approach the endgame of the endgame, Akram's Razor and Daniel talk about what we learned, what happens next, and who has a stronger hand; though I don’t think you’ll be surprised by our conclusions if you’ve listened to us before. Topics Covered 3:30 minute mark – Initial takeaways from the filings 12:30 – Twitter bot approach and response 15:00 – Breaking down Elon’s breach filing 23:30 – Takeaways from Twitter’s filing 29:00 – Recutting a deal and the Anaplan parallel 48:00 – Musk’s motivations and laziness 1:00:00 – What happens next? 1:09:30 – The “the court wouldn’t risk being ignored” argument 1:14:00 – The prisoner’s dilemma result of an actual acquisition 1:18:00 – The size of the deal 1:28:30 – Last thoughts…
1 The Bear Market Is Here: What Next? 58:53
58:53 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé58:53
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméOn this week’s The Razor’s Edge, we talk about the bear market. It’s here, it’s real, so now what? Neither Akram nor Daniel are in an apocalyptic mood, so we explain why we’re not, what green shoots there are on the supply side, what risks there are on the demand side, how this echoes 2020 (or not), how much crypto contagion worries us, and why it’s tricky picking individual names. Topics Covered 2:00 minute mark – An apocalyptic moment? Maybe not 10:00 – Is supply solving itself just as demand is weakening? 20:00 – The energy pullback – why was it predictable 23:00 – The echoes of March 2020 30:00 – Crypto contagion and its risks 38:00 – Opportunities in the current market 48:00 – What if inflation doesn’t slow down? 52:00 – The challenge of individual names and the hopes for a quiet summer…
1 The 2022 Whipsaw Market and the Hedgehog: Retail Stocks, Tech, and More 1:12:09
1:12:09 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:12:09
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméThis week's episode picks up where last week's The Razor's Edge episode left off. We talk the current whipsaw/whiplash macro environment, where a smaller, often over optimistic social media company can trigger a panic, and then news that is no worse than expected can fire up a bear market rally. We discuss tech stocks, retail stocks, and whether it's possible to be too bearish or too bullish as the winds shift.…
1 The Twitter Endgame, Again: Logic & Legality 1:07:38
1:07:38 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:07:38
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméIn part two of our recording this week, we get to Elon Musk and Twitter. Both because how can we not at this point, as the drama continues to unfurl, and also because Akram makes the case for this as a good merger arb play given the strength of contract law. We talk about whether Musk can work his way out of this and why Akram thinks he can’t, and what the next steps of the saga should be, along with a whole lot more. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark - The logical aspects of the Twitter case 13:30 - Twitter's setting up to go the distance, and the bots issue 30:00 - How material is the bots case 35:00 - What are the next steps, and the role of the equity partners 43:00 - Past precedents 50:00 - The outstanding risks to Twitter as a company and to Tesla as a stock 1:00:00 - Quick comments on the retail sector…
1 Growth Stocks Approaching a Bottom? 1:07:54
1:07:54 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:07:54
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméMarkets are in turmoil, and we almost busted out the siren. But instead of commemorating the second bear market in the Razor's Edge's lifetime, we focused on whether, actually, growth stocks might have bottomed. In an episode recorded Sunday, May 22nd, we talk about the growth stock washout, whether sentiment or operating momentum has bottomed, whether ZoomInfo makes sense as a short and Zoom Video makes sense as a long, and the peer pressure that a lot of investors, famous or not, have faced in the past couple years. This is the first of a two-part episode, as we'll get to the Twitter story tomorrow or Wednesday. 3:00 minute mark – The pending bear market, and have growth stocks already washed out? 8:00 – The ZoomInfo short and picking on the last high flyer standing 14:00 – So is this a bottom? 21:00 – Sentiment bottom vs. operating momentum bottom 33:00 – The recession/slowdown shoe to drop 38:00 – Zoom’s “soft landing” problems 43:00 – The two Zooms 52:30 – The turning tide among big-name investors and the peer pressure market…
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1 The Changing Story At Juniper, A Rare 2022 Tech Winner 45:10
45:10 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé45:10
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméTech as a sector has been a theme of the Razor's Edge from the beginning. Tech as a sector to avoid has been a theme of the Razor's Edge for at least the last few months. While there have been exceptions and nuances to the sector, the market has shown little interest in nuance, as this week's earnings have made clear. Juniper Networks, an old dot com bubble victim and survivor, has been an exception to that rule. A name Akram's Razor wrote up as a long thesis late last year, Juniper is up for the year as it has a few points in its favor: an upgrade cycle, a reasonable valuation, and operational momentum in the Wi-Lan space thanks to a winning acquisition. We discuss the company's prospects and why it is an exception to the tech rule, and also the legacy of tech sector sentiment shifts and a lot more. Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark – The upgrade cycle driving Juniper 7:30 – Why the company has stagnated for so long and why that is changing 13:00 – The Wi-LAN opportunity and kicker 18:00 – How is Juniper handling the backlog 21:30 – Relative performance for Juniper and its risk/reward 27:30 – The dot.com legacy and the recent momentum 31:30 – How the networking and virtualization corner of tech fits into a broader tech bucket 35:30 – Tech shifts in sentiment, and a Microsoft case study…
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The Razor’s Edge
We planned to do another episode this week, but on a different tech stock. We did indeed record that episode, but at the same time, with all the developments around Twitter - the board's adoption of a poison pill, Elon Musk's discussion of his bid during a Ted talk, and Jack Dorsey's subtweets of the board, among other things - we decided to discuss the situation. Akram's Razor posted a case for why Twitter's Endgame is at hand. Daniel had questions. And with this being a fast-moving situation, we are sharing it quickly. The second half of the discussion, on a different tech company, will come out later this week. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark – How the surrounding situation has changed and the case for the Elon Musk offer 15:30 – Why the current price of offer is ok and avoiding anchoring 28:00 – The private company angle and Twitter’s needed transformation 40:30 – Jack’s presence in all of this…
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1 The Consumer Goods Cliff, and also Elon Musk and Twitter 1:20:12
1:20:12 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:20:12
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméA lot has happened since we last published a Razor’s Edge episode: the outbreak of war, increased Fed hawkishness, and continued market volatility. We pick up the thread we’ve been following for some time, though: how to understand ‘normalized’ earnings power and behavior amidst the Covid-19 pandemic, the global response, and all the knock-on effects. We focus this time on the consumer goods sector and whether the cliff facing companies like RH and Best Buy is buyable, and what it says about the current market. We also, because how could we not, discuss Elon Musk’s investment in Twitter (though this was recorded a few hours before the news came out that he would not in the end serve as a director on Twitter’s board). Topics Covered 4:00 minute mark – Recent ups and downs 7:30 – Whither online spending 13:00 – The Consumer’s health and the consumer goods cliff – BBY, RH 23:00 – How much has the market already considered this all? 36:00 – Backlogs to save us 40:00 – Dive in or stay away? Revisiting travel 49:00 – The complicated consumer picture 54:00 – Twitter and the Musk situation 1:03:00 – The value of a corporate jackhammer 1:09:00 – The security analysis challenge Reading List: Akram's Razor's Edge: Covid Cliff Comes to Consumer and Fast's WeWork Moment Freight Waves' Why I believe a freight recession is imminent Stripe's Annual Report…
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1 The Tail Wagging the Dog: Big Tech Earnings And the 2022 Market 1:17:09
1:17:09 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:17:09
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméLast week was a wild one. Given we’re not in a period of acute crisis, and that the market finished higher on the week, the swings from Wednesday to Thursday to Friday were especially pronounced, even before you throw in Monday’s comeback rally. The triggers to those moves? At least on the surface, big tech earnings. To figure out what’s happening there and what these outsized moves say about the companies involved and the market as a whole, Akram’s Razor and Daniel break down Google, Amazon, and Facebook’s earnings. We talk about the market set up, whether this is as good as it is going to get for these companies, and why no one predicts a massive growth slowdown in their compounding business line. Topics Covered 2:00 minute mark – Initial reaction including the muted note with Google 7:00 – What explains the outsized moves 14:00 – The nature of Amazon’s segments 18:00 – Facebook’s issues and how they might overcome it 30:30 – Peak online time 36:00 – AWS’s future growth 46:00 – Is this what slowdowns look like 1:00:00 – The market set-up…
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1 New Year, Same Trading? Breaking Down The Bumpy Start To 2022 1:53:23
1:53:23 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:53:23
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméHappy New Year! Though this week’s The Razor’s Edge touches on what may not be the happiest start for people investing in software names or tech more generally. So what’s going on? We throw together a bit of recent and longer-term history, a bit of market sentiment analysis, and some opinions on what might still work, to see why a shift has been coming for a while and why there might be more to come. Topics covered 2:00 minute mark - Did the first week mark a change or a continuation? 10:00 – The momentum juggling game 13:30 – What’s triggering the shift? 20:00 – End of a software cycle and finding an investor base 28:00 – Tracking companies’ evolutions 36:30 – Consensus buys vs. taking a leap of faith 48:00 – Multiple gravity has changed towards the slow and steady 57:00 – The 00s shipping bubble as a parallel 59:30 – Navigating the factors and the importance of getting the cycle right 1:11:30 – Sectors to watch 1:17:00 – Importance of perspective 1:21:00 – The nature of competition when all eyes are on a trend 1:35:00 – Not quite validation for permabears either…
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1 Twitter‘s CEO Change And The Market Whirlwinds Around The Company 55:48
55:48 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé55:48
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméWe pick up this week's conversation where last week's (and so many of our past episodes left off) - what about Twitter, at this price, in this economy? We talk about the succession decision and why the set-up for the incoming CEO, intentionally set or not, is pretty attractive. We talk about Elliott Management's role in all this, and what they might be thinking about Twitter at this stage. We talk about downside and sector performance, and then we circle back to last week's discussion on the overall market volatility and why buying great companies irrespective of price can lead to more than the occasional pothole, even if the ride as a whole may turn out successful enough. Topics Covered 2:45 minute mark – Twitter’s valuation and the set up for new CEO Parag Agarwal 8:00 - The succession decision 14:00 – Other considerations for this move 22:00 – The downside at this point for Twitter 25:00 – Elliott’s role in all of this 29:00 – Sector movements 34:00 – Market considerations 40:00 – Places to avoid 45:00 – Extreme outcomes when buying a good business 49:00 – The ongoing volatility event in the market…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 The Docusign Sell-Off And The Latest Market Veer 56:45
56:45 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé56:45
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméDocusign’s sell-off on Friday and the corresponding market (and Nasdaq) sell-off are the latest sign of market uncertainty. No one knows anything – as Monday’s rally reminds us – but the question is whether we know we don’t know. In this week’s The Razor’s Edge, we focus on the uncertainty in the market, the importance of valuation even when growth stocks work, and how to handle the volatility. This ends up being a two-parter, as we will get to Jack Dorsey’s exit from Twitter in the second part next Tuesday. Topics Covered 2:45 minute mark – Docusign initial take 5:00 – Ringing the bell or the rolling sell-off 14:00 – Inflation and the macro in context 21:00 – Buy and hold and contrasting investing styles 24:00 – Starting SaaS multiples 35:00 – Limited entry point 43:00 – Bubble basket challenges 51:00 – Triggers and bottoms Some references: Daniel’s Docusign article Akram’s SaaS tweet Akram’s Zoom tweet…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 The Future Of Compute: Naveen Rao on How The AI Landscape Has Changed 1:21:28
1:21:28 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:21:28
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméWe wrap up our Future of Compute series with a leading force in the field, Naveen Rao. Rao founded Nervana Systems, the first next-gen AI chip company, which he sold to Intel. He then drove Intel's AI road map before stepping down from the company in 2020, and just recently announced the founding of MosaicML, an AI startup focused on making algorithms more efficient through what he calls here a 'benchmarking as a service' approach. Given his interest in AI stretching back over two decades and his front seat position in the field, Rao's perspective on the competitive landscape, on how things have changed from Nervana to Mosaic, and the challenges facing merchant silicon firms is both valuable and a nice wrap-up of the three part series. He gives his take on the Nvidia/ARM deal, Intel's position, the supply chain, and a lot more. Check out MosaicML , as well as their twitter account and Naveen's . Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark – Naveen’s entry into the AI world over his career 6:00 – What did people have to learn about neural networks? 8:00 – The goal of Mosaic 14:00 – View on the current landscape 17:30 – The model Mosaic is targeting 20:30 – The significance of Nvidia’s A100 and shift to AI dedicated GPUs – the field in 2016 26:00 – The field in 2018 32:30 – How to look at the AI market today 38:30 – The challenges facing legacy merchant silicon makers 45:30 – Can the industry continue to develop with such a fragmented environment 51:30 – Intel’s reaction to the current climate 55:30 – Where are the IPOs? 1:04:00 – Tesla’s D1 Chip and AI ambitions 1:12:30 – The Nvidia/Arm deal 1:15:30 – Supply Chain challenges…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Peloton‘s Stock Dropping Back To The Pack: A Bad Sign, An Opportunity, Or Both? 1:20:47
1:20:47 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:20:47
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméThis week we take a break from our Future of Compute series on the Razor’s Edge to talk Peloton. In an earnings season full of big moves and surprises, Peloton's downhill fall has been one of the headline events. As we mention on the call, who would imagine that COVID would still be a part of our lives, but Zoom and Peloton shares would be flat from June 2020? And yet, here we are. We break down how management may have backed themselves into a corner and what it would take for Peloton to climb again. We also get into how this is a signal of the pandemic-related challenges that still face many companies in a market that, despite continuing to rise as a whole, has seen more and more companies hit potholes. Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark – Peloton’s earnings fiasco 8:30 – The business model and the bull case 15:00 – Did Peloton’s management set themselves up for a fall? 21:00 – The permanent changes vs. trends in the broader U.S. economy 27:30 – How to recover from lost credibility 35:00 – Where does upside come from 40:00 – How Peloton can stabilize/turn it around 48:00 – The narrative momentum 56:30 – Market dispersion 1:01:00 – Last call on Peloton, and comparison to Zoom 1:16:00 – The challenges exiting a pandemic and investing meanwhile…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 The Future Of Compute: Cerebras‘s CFO, Tony Maslowski, On The Fragmenting AI Market 1:05:03
1:05:03 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:05:03
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméThe accelerating growth in the AI market requires different approaches from the hardware side. Cerebras's approach is that size matters and bigger is better: the company's massive wafer chip is the base of its AI intentions. CFO Tony Maslowski discusses the company's core insights and how that positions them to compete in the market. Maslowski, the former CFO at Avago Broadcom, also shares his view on the current supply chain challenges, on when these new-gen companies might go public, and on what the end game might be for the incumbent - Nvidia - and its challengers. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark - Cerebras Origins 7:00 – Unpacking Cerebras’s core insight 10:00 – How has the market evolved the past few years? 14:00 – Telling a new story and carving a new path in the chip space 21:00 – System vs. accelerator solutions 22:45 – Current end markets for AI 29:00 – Differentiating between AI and supercomputing 33:00 – Understanding training vs. inference 36:45 – The fragmentation of AI uses and suppliers 41:45 – When do these companies start coming public? 43:45 – The limits or challenges on competing for a new company 46:45 – What force drives AI use in the near term? 48:45 – The lost flexibility in the semiconductor supply chain 53:45 – The auto industry’s chip needs 55:00 – Where the leading force in the chip industry will come from…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 The Future of Compute: Ampere Computing‘s CPO, Jeff Wittich, On The Data Center Chip Industry 1:05:56
1:05:56 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:05:56
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméThe semiconductor industry is in a period of transition. Supply chain problems and questions over whether we are now in a secular growth environment; changing leadership as Intel loses ground and Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, and even a new generation of start-ups stake out a claim; and the new demands posed by Artificial Intelligence and its burgeoning compute needs. We're rolling out a little Future of Compute series to cover this. We speak with several executives and experts in the field to hear what the state of semiconductors, technology usage, and artificial intelligence from the hardware and software side looks like. We kick off with Jeff Wittich, Chief Product Officer at Ampere Computing. Wittich, like several of his Ampere colleagues including CEO/founder Renee James, is an Intel veteran. Ampere’s aim is to develop server chips designed explicitly for cloud usage, using an ARM chip framework, with the target of delivering much greater power efficiency. They seem to be gaining traction, with the most recent evidence being reports SoftBank is considering an investment in Ampere at an $8B valuation. We speak with Jeff about Ampere’s journey, about why now is the time for Arm-based chips in servers, about how hyperscalers shape the industry’s demands, the state of semiconductors, and of course a bit on Intel and its challenges. Topics Covered 4:00 – Ampere’s story 6:00 – What does a cloud focus mean for a chip maker? 11:30 – ARM’s experience in the data center world 16:45 – Why now for ARM-based server chips? 19:30 – TSM’s passing Intel and Intel losing its data center advantage 24:30 – The role of the hyperscalers as pace setters for cloud hardware 28:30 – Can Intel hold onto a shrinking datacenter TAM? 30:30 – The inflection point in the competitive landscape 35:00 – The in-house vs. outsourcing question for AI companies 41:00 – The inference vs. training distinction and the role of the CPU 47:00 - Optimizing for AI workloads 50:30 – How is Ampere lasting when other companies quit 55:30 – Supply chain outlook 58:30 – Risk of a cyclical downturn? 1:01:30 – Lightning round and edge vs. cloud…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 The Market Misperceptions Around Alibaba, Stitch Fix, And Twitter 1:21:45
1:21:45 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:21:45
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé*** Before you listen, there is a The Razor's Edge newsletter now available. Written by Akram's Razor, the Razor's Edge will come out at least twice a month and include ideas, analysis, macro input, and the insights you would expect from this podcast. Check it out at: https://the-razors-edge.ghost.io *** We revisit three The Razor's Edge names from 2021. Alibaba is down in the dumps from regulatory scrutiny, Stitch Fix can't get no respect, and Twitter received a negative sell-side initiation. We talk about each of the stocks, and while on the surface it would seem that nothing beyond stock performance and our interest unites the three, there are a lot of echoes in how the market is looking at each of them, at least from our vantage point. Topics Covered Alibaba 3:30 minute mark - Why the recent regulatory reports around Ant Financial aren’t shocking 10:00 – US corollaries for the current discussion 14:00 – Last year’s warning 18:00 – The significance of the FT report and how it might help Alipay’s/Alibaba’s position 22:30 – The impact on Alibaba’s valuation itself 26:30 – China regulators vs. U.S. regulators 33:00 – Time horizon for clouds to dissipate Stitch Fix 38:00 – Why is Stitch Fix so bad? Reviewing the story, valuation, stock, etc. 49:30 – The stylists’ news 53:00 – The market context for SFIX’s stock Twitter 55:30 – The Goldman downgrade and the confusion about Twitter from bulls 1:02:00 – Reframing the creator tools 1:08:00 – Blurring lenses in analyzing Twitter (or all of these names) 1:12:30 – The luxury of not having the market’s trust…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 PagerDuty‘s Present And Future Growth With CFO Howard Wilson 46:06
46:06 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé46:06
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé*** Before you listen, there is a The Razor's Edge newsletter now available. Written by Akram's Razor, the Razor's Edge will come out at least twice a month and include ideas, analysis, macro input, and the insights you would expect from this podcast. Check it out at: https://the-razors-edge.ghost.io *** PagerDuty has been a regular topic on The Razor's Edge for over a year, and this month's earnings seemed to reward that attention, as the company crossed the magic 30%+ revenue growth barrier for the first time since the pandemic began. To get more details on what drove that acceleration and what might come next, we spoke with Howard Wilson, PagerDuty's CFO. We talked about the macro climate driving PagerDuty's opportunity, the competition they are seeing and why they remain confident about it, and what product expansion looks like. Justen Stepka, regular Razor's Edge guest and formerly of Atlassian and Docker, joined us, and the conversation went deep on strategy, tactics, and opportunities across the board. We think you'll get a lot out of this episode. Topics Covered 3:45 minute mark – The second derivative effect 5:45 – What’s driving growth? 8:15 – Where is the sales focus? 9:45 – How the free tier fits into the business 13:15 – The power of the freemium model for PagerDuty 16:00 – The changing competitive stance and field 19:30 – Success in competing as a public company so far 22:30 – What is the future revenue growth strategy? 26:15 – PagerDuty network opportunities 29:45 – Customer sizing and how far penetration can go 37:45 - Pricing tiering potential 40:30 – Security Ops as an opportunity 42:15 – Long-term operating leverage…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Travel Stocks Like Booking And Boeing Set For Another Take-Off 1:14:33
1:14:33 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:14:33
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméThe quick hit re-open trade of January/February came and went. The U.S. is facing the delta variant of COVID-19 in full, which has shaken out some of the fast money from the travel sector. And yet... On this week's The Razor's Edge, we talk about why we think, in different ways, that the travel stocks are set up well for this year and beyond. There's a bit of the macro, a bit of a take on delta's persistence, and a lot more on Booking Holdings and Boeing as our focus companies. The full picture may not be clear, but we make a case for why there's enough visibility to make a bet at this point. Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark – The travel sector’s air pocket 7:00 – The delta factor 12:00 – The contrasting set-up between travel stocks and COVID winners this earnings season 15:30 – Booking Holding’s relative advantages in travel 22:00 – Thinking about Booking’s valuation 27:00 – Boeing’s situation and the 737 MAX and so on 30:00 – Portfolio positioning at this stage in the market 33:30 – Resetting on the macro outlook 40:30 – The deflation in inflation talk 43:30 – The importance of focus with more public names out there 47:30 – The lurking presence of the crypto trader 53:00 – The incremental news flow for travel 1:02:00 – The Covid market pendulum…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Covid-Era Comps Begin: A Look At Netflix's And Twitter's Earnings 1:14:18
1:14:18 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:14:18
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméEarnings season this quarter comes with a special kick. It’s the first one lapping full COVID comps, which means we can start to see what the wonky pull forward or shut down year ago will do to company’s reports, and how the market will respond. We focus today on Netflix and Twitter, two of our old standbys. On the one hand, they had opposite quarters – Netflix suffered from a post-COVID hangover in their subscriber numbers, which will likely lead revenue numbers; while Twitter posted a huge revenue beat compared to a pandemic crimped Q2 2020. Look a little closer, and there are similarities between the two companies positions and how they look going forward. We break it all down. Topics Covered Netflix 4:00 minute mark - Was COVID bad for Netflix? 10:45 – Measuring Netflix’s numbers given the last two years 17:30 – The slowdown reaching streaming peers 25:00 – The industry implications of Netflix’s position and the market reaction 34:30 – Is the winnowing coming? 41:00 – What hope is there for other streaming stocks if Netflix is not attractive here? Twitter 45:15 – The strong quarter, and the one gray note in the report 50:00 – Where is Twitter fitting in amongst a hot space… 55:00 – And how Twitter is better set up for when ads cool off 58:00 – The spending side of the line 1:03:00 – Twitter’s set up for the back half of the year…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 After Didi Global: Are Chinese Stocks Investable? 1:11:53
1:11:53 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:11:53
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméThe Didi Global IPO feels like a fiasco - company goes public one week, gets booted from the app store by Chinese regulators the next. With RLX Technology undergoing a similar crackdown earlier this year, and with Ant Financial still being kept off the market, and with concerns around Jack Ma's well-being in light of his criticism of the government, it's not a huge surprise most big-name Chinese stocks on the U.S. markets are trading poorly. A lot of questions arise, but the most basic one - can you invest in these stocks? In this week's episode we talk about Didi and what the various parties' motivation might be, what might make the picture clearer, and whether you can really invest in Alibaba, as well as whether that matters. Topics Covered 3:15 minute mark – What to make of the Didi crackdown 8:30 – Are China ADRs investible? 14:15 – What does an ADR actually get you? 22:15 – Considering the Chinese government’s calculus 25:15 – The difficulty of establishing an edge in these names 33:15 – Norms and flows, betting vs investing 39:15 – How much the right price can matter 47:15 – Revisiting the “Amazon of China” idea 52:45 – The Sina example 57:15 – U.S. Sino accords and balances of power 1:06:15 – Investing in China-based companies…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Short-Selling In 2021: Beware The Crowded Trade, And Eyes On Nvidia 1:14:19
1:14:19 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:14:19
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé"I'd rather short a real company than a fraud or a meme stock." Akram's Razor made this case on a recent Twitter Space, and we unpack the point on today's episode of the Razor's Edge. In a year when many short-sellers have been run over by trains, and have the AMC and GME shaped scars to prove it, betting against a popular, universally loved name may actually be safer. We go over Akram's historic approach to shorting, how that has to adapt to the current market, what the line is between a meme stock and an ordinary dud, and Nvidia's current position, which is more precarious than the market seems to be pricing in. Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark – Akram's historic shorting approach vs. the current market 9:00 – Microstrategy (MSTR) hodlco vs. opco 15:00 – Pay attention vs. avoid meme stocks 20:30 – More tangible shorts 24:30 – Sketching out Nvidia questions 32:30 – Sketching out tech sector questions 39:30 – The risk of relying on management to warn about slowdowns and the value of contrarianism (in spots) 47:30 – Disputing numbers vs. disputing stories and the proof of stake risk 53:30 – The ARM deal and Nvidia’s meme potential 59:30 – Staying out the way of these memes 1:06:00 – Building the “you’re crazy” basket…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Fed Reaction and the (Re)-Rise of SaaS 1:23:11
1:23:11 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:23:11
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméLast week's Fed meeting played to expectations - slightly tougher talk, limited changes in policy. The market's reaction was to pile back into the Covid winners, which meant SaaS stocks among others. So for today's episode, we follow up on our Fed discussion from last week, talking their decision and the market and media reaction. We then move over to the SaaS sector, our regular field. We break down three companies in detail – Zoom, PagerDuty, and Workday. We finish off with thoughts about the growth hangover that might plague COVID winners generally. Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark – Our Reaction to the Fed meeting 6:30 – The market and media reaction to the Fed meeting, and the difference between the health crisis and the market crisis (or reaction thereto) 17:30 – The analytical challenge for investors and the Fed, with the housing bull market as an example 23:30 – The crowding effect in the markets 32:30 – Shift to SaaS – Hasn’t ZM grown into their multiple and what does 2022 look like? 45:30 – PagerDuty – No surprises; the billings; Atlassian and Everbridge; multiple expansion 53:30 – Workday – Why the outlook lines up better for them than many SaaS peers – winning the finance office 58:30 – The distinction between Workday’s or PagerDuty’s customer base and Twilio’s or Zoom’s 1:09:30 – Growth hangover for Covid winners – THO as an example – and for the investors holding them ( Note: Daniel is long DBX as well as PD/THO, that disclosure was accidentally omitted from the recorded disclosure).…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Meme Stonks Part Deux: AMC, Algos, and The Fed 1:24:53
1:24:53 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:24:53
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméWe've seen this movie before, but it still doesn't really make sense: a group of traders has taken up the cause of inflating the stock price of a motley bunch of stocks, including AMC as the most prominent company this time around. There are hints of financial populism as there were with GameStop in January, but this time it feels more like pure financial nihilism. On today's episode of The Razor's Edge , we talk about the difference between round one and round two, how AMC should have something of a future even if it's more than priced in, and how given the trading volumes it would be rash to assume retail traders are truly driving this movement. We also talk about the body lurking in the background who could, if they so chose, take action to stop or slow this mania. Jerome Powell, you're our only hope? We break it down. Topics Covered 3:15 minute mark – Meme stocks part deux, and the bleeding from trading into investing 11:30 – The abstraction of what moves a stock, and AMC vs. GME fundamentally 24:00 – Where does this leave AMC and the countercultural movement behind the meme stocks 34:00 – The algorithmic muscle behind these moves 39:00 – The blending of signal and noise and market virality 46:30 – The fight against financial nihilism: Here comes the Fed? 53:00 – Risk reward of proactive action vs. reactive from the Fed 1:00:00 – The limits of regulation vs. the limits on liquidity 1:04:00 – What might the Fed actually do 1:13:00 – The weirdness of the recent past and how that compares to our current climate, and where that leaves the Fed 1:18:00 – Fed Credibility Also, check out another Shortman Studios podcast, the Big Tech Ticket, featuring conversations on the biggest issues in tech. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-tech-ticket/id1565981471…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 The Yalla Buzz And The Back Talk 1:07:36
1:07:36 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:07:36
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméA couple weeks ago, Akram released a short thesis on Yalla, calling out an odd business model and then some major issues with the platform - duplicative accounts, low engagement, glitches with the gifting model, etc. On this week's episode we recap that short thesis for those who haven't heard it yet, but then we also go into the aftermath. What's it like to have another short report come out in the same week? Where are the bulls? What about that buyback announcement? And where can this go? Topics Covered 4:00 minute mark – Background on the Yala case 7:15 -How Yala works 13:30 – The content creation red flags 18:30 – What's the deal with gifting? 25:00 – The circle that won't square 32:00 – Thoughts when another short (or three) enters the debate 37:30 – Lack of bulls and the company response 43:15 – Where does this go from here? 49:00 - An alternative playbook 54:30 - The state of shorting and why this one is different Reading material Akram's Razor's presentation on Yalla - https://www.dropbox.com/s/wntrsycechmyxj9/YallaPrez.pdf?dl=0 and update - https://www.dropbox.com/s/y4wihdy3f7zjz6a/Yalla%20FollowUp.pdf?dl=0 Swan Street Research's presentation on Yalla - https://www.swanstreetresearch.com/post/swan-street-is-short-yalla-group Yalla's press releases in repsonse: Standard refutation - https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18325971-yalla-group-limited-responds-to-short-attack-reports - and stock buyback announcement - https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18328269-yalla-group-limited-announces-up-to-us-150-million-share-repurchase-program…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Transitory Inflation Vs. The Looming End Of Covid 52:15
52:15 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé52:15
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméInflation realities and fears struck the market last week, sending indices lower and helping drive the Nasdaq's 3rd consecutive losing week. At least that's the straightforward read, but as with so much of the market, there could be other things going on. While many are talking about the CPI report, the CDC's updated mask guidance is a reminder that a post-COVID world is coming. So is that what's moving stocks, or how are investors thinking about all this? On this edition of The Razor's Edge , we talk about the nature of this inflation and the nature of this market, how it compares to past environments, and what sorts of changes we are or are not making in our positioning. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark - Interpreting the regime change – inflation or end of covid? 11:00 - The inherent rebalancing 19:30 - Changes in mindset or positioning 22:00 - What transitory inflation means, and looking back at 2000 31:00 - Managing relative value as a strategy in a changing investment regime environment 37:30 - Disney as an example of what is a good return and thoughts on pair trades 45:00 - Hitting the reset button coming out of the pandemic…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 The Big Tech Ticket: The Calculus Behind Facebook's Oversight Board And The Trump Decision 44:23
44:23 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé44:23
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméWe're sharing the debut episode of a new Shortman Studios podcast, The Big Tech Ticket. The show, hosted by veteran journalist James Rogers, will cover many of the topics you hear on The Razor's Edge, but from a different angle. AI, semiconductor supply chain, antitrust, all the big issues facing tech and our society today, from the perspective of people with a front-row seat to the stories. The initial episode features James speaking with Jason Mollica, professor of communications at American University, about Facebook’s oversight board and its awaited decision on whether or not to let Donald Trump back onto the platform. The show was recorded a few weeks ago, and with the decision expected to come out today, the discussion is timely. So, without further ado, check out this episode of the Big Tech Ticket, and sign up for the show wherever you get podcasts, including: Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-tech-ticket/id1565981471 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Aj3Za0kZRMpAGwzgLybPw?si=3c855142bde04233 Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark - The background on the Facebook Oversight Board’s pending decision 7:00 – What is the board considering? 9:30 – The board’s independence and the stakes of this decision 13:30 – The impact on users 18:00 – How might this affect Facebook’s business as a brand-safe platform? 21:30 – The global political impact of this decision 24:30 – Knock-on effect to other platforms like Twitter 27:30 – What would Trump’s play be in a social media network 33:30 – Facebook’s resiliency 38:00 – The legacy of Trump’s social media use…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Opening The Box On Stitch Fix's Bull Case Amidst A Rocky Year 55:23
55:23 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé55:23
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméOn this week’s The Razor’s Edge, we’re talking Stitch Fix. The e-commerce apparel retailer has had quite a six months – a strong earnings report in December sent shares higher, propelled perhaps by high short interest in the name. That high short interest took on rocket fuel in January amidst the Gamestop frenzy. The air came out of the shares, and then the company reported a weaker earnings in March. And then co-founder and CEO Katrina Lake announced she would step down as CEO in August. So a lot going on. The stock has passionate bulls and bears, and we try to sort out the bull case and whether it's a keeper. Topics Covered 2:45 minute mark – Daniel’s SFIX elevator pitch 6:00 – How to peg a valuation for a unique approach 12:00 – The value proposition and the edge 20:00 – Using (or misusing) the Netflix parallel 26:00 – Advantages from the back end side 34:00 – Is this changing the game in apparel 43:00 – The competitive threats that might come into play 49:30 – What to make of Lake stepping down and final notes…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 The Semiconductor Shortages And Why Building Foundries Might Not Solve It All 1:01:57
1:01:57 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:01:57
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméSemiconductor shortages have been one of the big economic themes emerging in 2021, in our ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ pandemic stage. We have to mention the pandemic because that’s a proximate cause of many of the shortages and supply chain issues that have beset the semiconductor industry and many others. The Auto industry has been a headliner for having to shut production due to lack of semis. And with some grumbling between China and the US over Taiwan, the key role that island plays in the supply chain also looks like a vulnerability. On today’s episode, we attempt to navigate the economic, geopolitical, and investing implications of all this talk, while zeroing in on the supply chain and its oligopolistic, specialized nature. Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark – The shortage and Covid dynamics in semis 7:15 – Working through the supply chain itself 16:45 – The consolidation and specialization along the chain 20:30 – Distinguishing the auto industry’s demand needs, and the illustration of supply chain limits (or not?) 28:00 – The role of the hyperscalers and what would happen if we built fabs in the US 34:00 – TSM’s freezing effect on the China-Taiwan-U.S. relationships 37:00 – Don’t forget the pandemic effects 41:30 – China’s successes in the chip supply chain 44:30 – The U.S.’s limits as a consumer market 46:30 – Semiconductor market outlook in light of all of this 56:00 – Last political notes for context…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 The Last Thing We Needed: Breaking Down the Archegos Capital Blowup 1:10:44
1:10:44 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:10:44
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméThe Archegos Capital blow-up at the end of Q1 marked the second huge non-fundamental market event, mirroring the GameStop/Melvin Capital/vintage investing short squeeze dynamics of January. While these can feel like localized events, making or spoiling GSX or VIAC investors' quarters, they at the very least offer important reminders of risk management and understanding your underlying investments. We break down how something like this might happen and what it means for bystanders and active investors. Topics Covered 2:30 minute mark - The Archegos and GameStop echoes 10:00 - The scaling of the short squeeze strategy 13:30 - Lone actor or market reflexivity at work? 16:00 - What fundamentally changed during COVID for these sorts of names 21:30 - The lack of an exit strategy 27:00 - Aftershocks of this action 33:00 - Adjusting to an elevated valuation environment and the leverage factor 39:00 - The company and prime brokers’ perspective on this situation 45:00 - Where do we go from here 54:00 - The danger of consensus 1:00:00 - Time to make weight for certain stocks Bonus: Article from Michigan Radio on sewer issues…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 March Madness: PagerDuty Earnings, Just Eat Takeaway Ready For Pick Up, and GoPro or Go Home 1:23:05
1:23:05 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:23:05
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméThis week’s the Razor’s Edge takes a March Madness theme, as we break down a bracket of ideas. We start off with PagerDuty, breaking down their very solid Q4 report and FY 2022 guidance, as well as the swagger management had on the call. Then we each pitch a new idea. Daniel talks up the favorable economics of Just Eat Takeaway (in the process of buying out GrubHub), and Akram pitches GoPro as a growing subscription business positioned perfectly for a reopening tailwind. We quiz each other on the theses and try to boil down what truly matters for each pitch. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark – PagerDuty Earnings review – confidence, use case expansion, bundling, valuation, the point product vs. platform elements, and when is it worth talking to management Just Eat Takeaway Ready For Pick Up 20:00 – The basic bull argument 27:00 - The value proposition for customers and thinking through customer behavior 36:00 – The founder-led angle 46:00 – Working through the competition 51:00 – Distinction in our investing styles GoPro or Go Home 54:30 – The GoPro case 1:03:45 – Subscription economics for GPRO 1:09:00 - How big of a post-COVID play is this and what about this over-extrapolating? 1:15:00 -The Gamestonk context and why it helps or hurts the case 1:17:30 – Time horizon for the GoPro trade Some related items to read: Not Boring on the beginning of the end . Marc Barros on GoPro vs. Contour Daniel's Just Eat Takeaway pitch Akram's GoPro pitch…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Streaming Endgame, The fuboTV Bear Case, And The Rise Of Audio With Andrew Freedman 1:18:26
1:18:26 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:18:26
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméOne of our regular areas of focus on the Razor’s Edge is the streaming space, and there are few people who are following that space as closely as Andrew Freedman of Hedgeye. To the point where his name has come up on our episodes more than once. So it was long overdue to have him join the Razor’s Edge to share what he’s seeing. We focus on what’s going on in streaming and whether all the new entrants will have the endurance to make it in the long-term. We then drill into the story around FuBo, a company that Andrew has been vocally bearish about. We wrap up streaming with a look at Netflix’s next act, and then look into the new emergence of live audio as a competitive opportunity, and wrap up with a few questions sourced from Twitter followers. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark – What’s interesting about streaming right now, and the rise of the laggards 13:00 – Is the streaming winnowing coming? 22:00 – The pace and rhythm of great content 27:30 – The FuBo bear case 33:30 – FuBo’s target audience and other bull case points 43:00 – The direction of sports programming and why this won’t be a replay of Netflix circa 2011 or Roku circa 2019 48:30 – Netflix’s next act 56:30 – The audio space, and/or “Spaces” – Twitter, Spotify, Clubhouse, Facebook 1:08:00 – Listener questions – Pinterest in a reopening environment; ROKU vs. TWTR in 10 years; Square buying Tidal; MTCH vs. BMBL Andrew's work at Hedgeye: https://accounts.hedgeye.com/products/communications_pro/558!559 Hedgeye’s Terms of Service: https://www.hedgeye.com/terms_of_service Definition of some terms: SVOD – Subscription Video on Demand AVOD – Advertising based Video on Demand OTT – Over the Top, TV delivered over the internet rather than through traditional cable (also an ‘80s movie) RSN – Regional Sports Networks VMPVD - Virtual Multichannel Video Programming Distributor…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Covid Conundrum: Zoom's Earnings, Bellwether Warnings, and PagerDuty Preview 1:15:26
1:15:26 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:15:26
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméJust over a year ago, we released an episode of The Razor’s Edge called Correction City. As we lap the beginning of the pandemic, we also are starting to glimpse the end, and the market is starting to look like a long, strange trip. Bellwethers are moving lower, rotations are happening, and 40% revenue growth guidance isn't what it used to be. We talk Zoom - one of the stocks that the market and we have been following most closely since last March - and then process the other major shifts in the market. We finish with a look at PagerDuty's upcoming earnings, which also leads us to Snowflake's imposing position. Topics Covered 4:00 minute mark - Initial review of the week that was 9:00 - ZM’s report as a bellwether 13:30 - What’s ahead for ZM 20:30 – The importance of annual guidance on the Q4 call 25:30 - What changed for the market, and what distinguishes Zoom from other SaaS winners 33:30 - Wal-Mart’s (WMT) warning 40:00 - What’s going on this week 48:00 - Looking out a year ahead positioning wise 58:00 - PagerDuty’s outlook and earnings preview 1:04:30 - Snowflake’s positioning 1:07:30 - Humility in the face of the weighing machine…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Ramp Co-Founder Karim Atiyeh On The Corporate Spend Market And Ramp's Position 1:25:07
1:25:07 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:25:07
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméThis week on the Razor's Edge, we speak with Karim Atiyeh, a serial fintech entrepreneur. He is the co-founder of Ramp, a fast-growing spend management fintech company. He talks about the company's positioning and alignment with customers, what he learned from his time at Capital One after the credit card giant acquired his previous company, and what it was like launching a product a month before the pandemic began, from a New York office no less. Topics Covered 3:30 minute mark – Ramp’s target market and the distinction between focusing on transaction fees and spend management 10:15 – Selling into the finance department and the effect on organizations 14:45 – Ramp’s origin story and the opportunity for spend management in the market 20:00 – Price transparency vs. dynamic pricing in SaaS 23:15 – The fintech ecosystem 28:15 – The importance of integrations, with Slack as an example 34:15 – Launching a company in the face of COVID 41:15 – The return to the office 43:15 – Hiring during and after COVID 48:15 – Remote effect on the workplace dynamic for new hires 51:45 – Business spending changes during the pandemic 54:45 – COVID Peak for many businesses 1:05:15 – Peak Screen time/audio 1:15:15 – The meme-iverse and the loudest voices in the financial social media ecosphere, and bitcoin 1:21:15 – Karim’s investing takes, and Shopify…
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The Razor’s Edge
1 Talking The Twitter Trade, Analyst Day, And The Big Picture 1:42:16
1:42:16 Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime Aimé1:42:16
Lire Plus Tard Lire Plus Tard Des listes J'aime AiméIt's been a wild and, finally, fun ride for Twitter over the past 11 months. While everything feels like smooth sailing now for bulls, even as of our last episode on the stock post ex-President Trump ban in January, things weren't so clear. Despite that, the set-up was good enough for Akram's Razor to open an options trade into the earnings call (and for Daniel Shvartsman to open a small long position, which is a separate story). We break down what happened with Twitter but also more of the mechanics of the options trade; why that trade, why Q4 and not Q3, whether to hold it into the call itself, and what's left for Analyst Day this week. All of this happens within the context of the broader macro environment and what growth investors might start extrapolating as we (fingers crossed!) round our way out of the full COVID environment this year. So we bring a dollop of that context into the discussion as well. Topics Covered 4:00 minute mark - How does event-driven trading of options fit into a broader portfolio strategy? 12:00 - Reviewing our record on Twitter and how/when Akram's views flipped over 2020 - the importance of narrative shifts, product adoption/development, having a variant view, and understanding the other side of the trade 22:30 - Twitter's setup going into the start of 2021 28:45 - Why not own the biggest growth stocks instead of a Twitter? 34:30 - Market participants' tendency to extrapolate in the short-term, and the misuse of 'compounding' 40:00 - Defining mania 48:00 - The strum and drang around Twitter at the beginning of 2021 and the March options trade 1:04:00 - The Q4 reaction and what's left for the analyst day 1:11:00 - Twitter's differentiation in the subscription space 1:22:00 - The importance of understanding the process 1:27:00 - Peak screen time…
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