TEK2day Podcast: Technology, Capital Markets, Entrepreneurship, Leadership, Corporate Governance. Check out our content at TEK2day.com
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MSFT is enjoying a 3,000x MVA to Gen AI Revenue multiple. Read the full TEK2day article here: https://tek2day.substack.com/p/msfts-3000x-market-value-added-toWatch the YouTube version of this podcast episode here: https://youtu.be/465MY47xG6Q?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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If Microsoft’s Gen AI effort is to be a success on the order of justifying MSFT’s share gains (up 87% since Dec 30th 2022), Copilot Pro ($20 per user per month) needs to be a success. Read the full article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/microsoft-copilot-pro-show-me-the?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webWatch the YouTube versio…
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Ep. 494: AI Rant and Microsoft Copilot
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View the video version of this episode here on YouTube: https://youtu.be/0Lx7Njk4QLE?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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View the video version of this podcast here: https://youtu.be/wqQd88N0Mzw?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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Ep. 492: A 10% Yield on the 10-Year Treasury in 10 Years?
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See the video version of this podcast episode here: https://youtu.be/w4fevzZutZ8?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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Watch the YouTube version of this episode here: https://youtu.be/uf6E7YCPGi4?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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Ep. 490: Recessions Happen When Fed Funds Exceeds Personal Savings
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See our related article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/recessions-happen-when-fed-funds?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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Ep. 489: CPI and Inflating the Debt Away
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Watch the video version of this episode here: https://youtu.be/9ZaFtnJaD58?feature=sharedRead the related TEK2day article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/there-is-nothing-magical-about-the?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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View the YouTube version of this episode here: https://youtu.be/vXVAWgm8Ghs?feature=sharedRead the related TEK2day article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/adobe-creative-cloud-is-not-growing?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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Ep. 487: What Could Change Investor Psychology?
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View the YouTube version of this episode here: https://youtu.be/r4spPWX9U1Q?feature=sharedRead the related article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/worst-case-for-the-economy-and-markets?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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See the YouTube version of this episode here: https://youtu.be/nlt71a6dnVI?feature=sharedRead the full article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/fed-discount-window-borrowing-increased?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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Watch the YouTube version here: https://youtu.be/jVcaKYGK_V0?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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Watch the YouTube version here: https://youtu.be/hSyrR5uZSUw?feature=sharedRead our related article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/which-companies-are-generating-meaningful?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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Unknowable outcomes bring Gen AI’s ROI into question.Par TEK2day
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The video version of this podcast is here: https://youtu.be/B1mF-zqklZY?feature=sharedOur related TEK2day article: The LLM Space Is Richly Valued Thanks To The Fed: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/the-llm-space-is-richly-valued-thanks?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webRelated video: https://youtu.be/6g8Qi9AnjuM?feature=shared…
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View the video episode here: https://youtu.be/mOs873KLA8U?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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View the video version of this podcast episode here: https://youtu.be/Zd30vLlKyJ8?feature=sharedRead the related article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/execute-your-buyback-when-the-stock?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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View the YouTube version of this podcast episode here: https://youtu.be/AbOfProg-AM?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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Ep. 477: Our Advice for Jerome Powell
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View the YouTube version of this episode here: https://youtu.be/qaDYZSiKdFQ?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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Ep. 476: Inflation Remains Stubborn
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View the YouTube version of this episode here: https://youtu.be/REdvTVVVrr4?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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The video version of this episode may be found here: https://youtu.be/S3dXXtRGabc?feature=sharedPar TEK2day
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell needs to channel Dr. No from the James Bond series. Powell needs to say “no” more often in order to help maintain the United States’ fiscal solvency (the U.S. of course is insolvent).Banks, CRE owners, PE firms, institutional and retail investors and of course the political class will all soon be clamoring for Powell to ease…
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Ep. 473: FOMC Press Conference Reaction
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Ep. 473: FOMC Press Conference Reaction by TEK2dayPar TEK2day
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Here is the related TEK2day article: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/the-jobs-picture-is-not-rosy?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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Ep. 471: Markets Need to Pay Attention to Bank Borrowing at The Fed’s Discount Window in March
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Weekly Update: Bank Term Funding Program: https://tek2day.substack.com/p/weekly-update-bank-term-funding-program-1d3Par TEK2day
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Weekly Update: Bank Term Funding Program: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/weekly-update-bank-term-funding-program-9a7?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webThe Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/the-feds-balance-sheet-reduction-cd4?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web…
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Related TEK2day article: "The NFL Is Making A Strategic Mistake:"https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/the-nfl-is-making-a-strategic-mistake?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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Here is our related TEK2day article: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/bofas-unrealized-losses-taper?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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Ep. 467: Robert Kraft Handles Belichick Deal with Class. Part II: Streaming M&A
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Here is the YouTube video I referenced: https://youtu.be/A2aoS00Wqog?feature=sharedHere is our related TEK2day article: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/the-second-tier-media-companies-are?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@TEK2dayWe cover recent TEK2day articles around CPI, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and stagflation. CPI: Prices Will Remain Stubbornly High Unless Unemployment Increases: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/cpi-prices-will-remain-stubbornly?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_mediu…
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Subscribe to the YouTube version of the podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@TEK2dayThe article I reference is here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/jobs-data-if-the-government-says?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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Most of today’s GenAI economics is at the infrastructure layer – whether it be money paid for AI chips, or money invested in the development of large language models (LLMs) or money paid for the right to license LLMs for inclusion in various applications. However, we are not at the point where users are demanding that various applications incorpora…
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Ep. 463: 2024 Will Be Anything But Boring
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Some thoughts about 2024:Companies will provide conservative 2024 outlooks when they report Q4 results later this month and early next month.The Fed will likely renew its Bank Term Funding Program, further backstopping bank balance sheets against unrealized losses.The Fed will reinflate bond prices and asset prices in general as it cuts rates and e…
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The Fed won’t allow the BTFP to expire on March 11th without first re-inflating the bond market.The banking industry had $684 billion of unrealized losses on the books at the end of Q3. Bank of America alone had $132 billion of unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities, $107 billion of which were mortgage-backed securities at a yield of 2.12…
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Economic conditions are deteriorating. Revenue growth will slow in 2024 and operating margins will be squeezed. 1H 2024 will see conditions deteriorate for most companies. The Fed potentially cutting its Fed Funds rate by 25 BPS in March will not mean squat to companies carrying meaningful amounts of debt, especially high yield issuers. High yield …
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There are an infinite number of serious threats posed by Advanced AI. OpenAI founder Sam Altman, OpenAI’s Board of Directors and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella owe it to the American people (all people for that matter), to fully disclose what it was that Sam Altman lied to his Board about concerning ChatGPT’s capabilities. Mr. Altman going before Cong…
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One measure of inflation is to compare growth in the money supply to GDP growth. Money supply growth should not exceed economic growth. When money supply growth exceeds economic growth, that resulting “slack” is inflation. Written another way, inflation exists when the money supply grows faster than GDP. See our related TEK2day article here: https:…
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Ep. 458: Christmas Special: Inflation Is Immoral
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Here is the related TEK2day article: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/reflecting-on-the-immorality-of-inflation?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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A follow-up to today’s written article where we cover ODL and Bank liquidity. The article may be found here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/bank-liquidity-is-rising-but-at-what?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webPar TEK2day
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Ep. 456: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Is Arthur Burns 2.0
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Fed Chair Powell and the FOMC run the risk of re-igniting inflation with last week’s dovish commentary. Market conditions have continued to ease since the FOMC meeting and press conference on December 13th. Powell’s Fed may be forced to further tighten monetary policy after loosening last week – a repeat of then Fed Chair Arthur Burns having pulled…
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We cover recent TEK2day articles concerning the Fed. Read TEK2day on Substack: https://tek2day.substack.com/p/tek2day-podcast-ep-455-the-fed-unrealizedPar TEK2day
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Ep. 454: The Fed’s Stagflationary Setup
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Apologies for the several seconds of lost audio. The YouTube version of this episode does not have the audio issue and may be found here: https://youtu.be/FBhCY5nnkDY?feature=sharedThe Fed Is Setting Up A Stagflationary Decade: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/the-fed-is-setting-up-a-stagflationary?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webOur…
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Don’t believe the hype around the Fed being well on its way to conquering inflation and achieving a “soft” landing. The Fed did irreparable damage to the economy in 2020, 2021 and 2002 with its ultra-dovish COVID response.See related TEK2day article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/the-feds-feeble-attempt-to-tame-inflation?r=1rp1p&utm_…
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Ep. 452: Reassembling The Content Bundle
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It will be difficult for most streaming services to generate a profit, particularly if interest rates remain elevated. Deep-pocketed technology companies such as Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft are well-positioned to reassemble the traditional content bundle as a streaming bundle. Amazon is well ahead of the pack to this end.Recent Related TEK2…
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Wages as measured in today’s ADP report are growing faster than inflation as measured by CPI. So why is the economy slowing? The answer is because CPI is understated.Today’s TEK2day article: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/bad-economic-news-continues-to-be?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=webToday’s ADP release: https://www.prnewswire.c…
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TEK2day Podcast Ep. 450: Disney CEO Bob Iger's Hands Are Full With ESPN
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TEK2day Podcast Ep. 450: Disney CEO Bob Iger's Hands Are Full With ESPN by TEK2dayPar TEK2day
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Follow us at: https://tek2day.substack.comPar TEK2day
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Ep. 448: The Fed, Inflation, Recession and 2024 Tech Outlook
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We cover the Fed, persistent inflation, the looming recession, our 2024 Tech outlook and more.Par TEK2day
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The overnight reverse repo market (ON RRP) sat at $887 billion last night, down from $2.6 Trillion at the peak on December 30th 2022. As the Fed slowly removes liquidity from the system through QT, Banks and Non-Bank institutions are parking less capital overnight at the Fed. Think of the reverse repo balance as excess liquidity in the system. The …
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A Full Bank Deposit Backstop Is ImpossibleThe Fed, Treasury and the FDIC are writing a check they can’t cash. Based on their rhetoric, the three Government organizations have implied that they will backstop all bank deposits. It would be impossible for this unholy triumvirate to do so given the tab could be north of $15 Trillion at the extreme.MORE…
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