Numerai & Predictoor: How AI Changed Crypto Prediction Markets - Trent McConaghy & Richard Craib

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Prediction markets were one of the first use cases of smart contracts, yet their popularity only recently spiked, following Polymarket’s social media spread. However, while prediction markets are generally zero-sum games, the rise of AI models trained on large datasets led to AI-powered prediction feeds and hedge funds. Crypto offers a unique array of use cases as it allows data scientists to not only share their data sets and models with complete privacy, but also access decentralised computing and model training. While Predictoor employs Ocean’s data infrastructure to run AI-powered prediction bots on lower timeframes, Numerai developed its own AI hedge fund for stocks, that recently also expanded to crypto (Numerai does not trade cryptocurrencies, and Numerai’s Hedge Fund(s) have no relation to Numerai Crypto).

Topics covered in this episode:

Predictoor & Numerai overview
Prediction markets
Prediction feeds
Prediction markets in TradFi and other use cases
Implementation of Ocean’s tech in Predictoor
Predictions vs. Futures
Market participants
Numerai hedge fund
Numerai’s trust assumptions
The role of AI
The evolution of AI and how it might solve market inefficiencies
Numerai crypto and how it differs from Predictoor
Predictoor x Numerai collaborations
The future of prediction markets

Episode links:

Sponsors:

Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - gnosis.io
Chorus1: Chorus1 is one of the largest node operators worldwide, supporting more than 100,000 delegators, across 45 networks. The recently launched OPUS allows staking up to 8,000 ETH in a single transaction. Enjoy the highest yields and institutional grade security at - chorus.one

This episode is hosted by Friederike Ernst.

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